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Using Experimental Vignettes to Study how Survey Methods Affect the Public’s Evaluation of Polls

Project type

Journal publication

Overview

As a co-author on this article, I contributed primarily to the statistical analysis, using R and Stata to clean the survey data and build the models. The project examined how the public evaluates opinion polls by testing four theoretical models - rational actor, science literacy, motivated reasoning, and dual process - through a series of representative sample vignette experiments. Our analyses showed strong support for motivated reasoning and provided new evidence for a dual process perspective, demonstrating that people rely on survey methodology when they are both motivated and able to do so. My role focused on preparing the data, specifying and estimating regression and interaction models, and interpreting results that ultimately supported the study’s central conclusions.

When poll results match people’s views, highlighting the methodology builds trust, but when the results contradict their beliefs, the same details make them doubt it even more.

© 2025 by Polina Polskaia

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